Bush May Start Talks With N. Korea, Former Envoy Says (Update1)

By Heejin Koo

Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush may bow to political pressure from within the U.S. and agree to direct talks with a nuclear-armed North Korea, according to a former State Department specialist on Kim Jong Il's regime.

``President Bush doesn't change his policy because of external pressure,'' Kenneth Quinones, 63, said in an interview on Jeju island, South Korea. ``If he's going to change in the near future, it's because of domestic political pressure.''

U.S. officials have refused North Korea's demands for bilateral talks, urging the Asian nation to return to six-nation negotiations on ending its weapons program that have been suspended since November last year. North Korea announced on Oct. 9 it had detonated a nuclear bomb.

Failure by the Republican Party to keep control of Congress in elections on Nov. 7 will probably encourage Bush to begin direct negotiations, according to Quinones, a former State Department director of North Korean affairs. Democratic candidates are backed by 53 percent of likely voters, according to a Newsweek poll of 1,002 people, conducted between Oct. 19 and 20 with a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

``In Washington, surprisingly, there is within the Republican Party growing pressure on Bush to show flexibility,'' said Quinones. ``If the Republicans lose, then yes, I have no doubt Bush will show greater flexibility.''

Reaching Agreements

Quinones, a professor of Korean Studies at Japan's Akita International University, was involved in so-called back channel talks between the State Department and North Korea's delegation to the United Nations till February this year. He was in South Korea last week to give a lecture.

The U.S. and North Korea in 1994 reached an agreement for North Korea to abandon its weapons program to get assistance to build two reactors for generating power.

The accord unraveled when the North admitted in October 2002 it was proceeding with its weapons plan in violation of the pact. Bush had already branded the country part of an ``axis of evil'' for developing weapons of mass destruction and selling drugs and counterfeit money. Iraq and Iran were the other countries named in the ``axis of evil.''

North Korea must return to the six-nation talks, which include the U.S., China, Russia, Japan and South Korea, and the U.S. won't negotiate outside that framework, according to U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Oct. 20.

Refusal to Return

Kim's regime has refused to return until the U.S. removes financial sanctions imposed last year for money-laundering and counterfeiting.

``President Bush's whole claim of `I want a peaceful diplomatic solution, but I won't negotiate' -- it's a total contradiction,'' Quinones said. ``You can't have one without the other.''

The commander of the U.S. Forces Korea and the United Nations Command, General Burwell Bell, also urged North Korea to return to talks.

``I hope for a peaceful and diplomatic resolution to the North Korean nuclear issue,'' Bell told reporters at a briefing held at the Yongsan Eighth U.S. Army base in Seoul today. ``If deterrence fails, and North Korea attacks the Republic of Korea, the ROK-U.S. alliance will quickly and decisively defeat any aggression.''

The nuclear test heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula, where North and South remain technically at war because no peace treaty was signed to end their 1950-53 conflict, and raised concerns of a regional arms race.

``Moderate right-wing factions'' including former Secretary of State James Baker and former President George H.W. Bush will urge the administration to meet with the North, Quinones said.

Frozen Funds

One possible compromise is over $24 million of North Korean funds frozen at Banco Delta Asia in Macau, China, after the U.S. Treasury Department in September last year designated the lender as a money-laundering threat, Quinones said.

North Korea offered to transfer the money to a New York account, allowing the U.S. to monitor its distribution, according to Quinones.

``The Treasury Department flatly rejected the idea,'' Quinones said, without specifying where he obtained the information. ``If it comes to a choice between Washington accepting that compromise and allowing the transfer of funds, or war, everybody will push Washington to take the compromise offer.''

Quinones said he does not expect Japan, Taiwan or South Korea to begin nuclear weapons programs while the international community to trying to revive negotiations.

``If the six-party talks completely collapse, then we could see an unraveling of the present balance of power.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Heejin Koo in Seoul at hjkoo@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 30, 2006 00:56 EST